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US housing market - still weak 12 Jan 2011 | 05:43 pm
Core logic came out with their house price index with data up to November. The data is repeat sale like the Case-Shiller index so should be reasonably reliable and covers all states so is broader than...
US housing markets - strongish centre and weak periphery 31 Dec 2010 | 02:13 pm
The most recent Case-Shiller house prices (October data) for 20 cities in the US came out a few days ago. The overall impression is that house prices have begun to slowly weaken again following the ex...
Latest US house price data 29 Jul 2009 | 12:52 pm
OK the Case Shiller house price data is out today (for May). Last months data I pointed out an emerging trend. "5 cities that did not have a big boom, the change in prices was basically 0 over the la...
Forclosures - a short or long term problem? 1 Jul 2009 | 10:14 pm
Over at http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_insight/2009/06/interpreting-housing-indicators.html Jeffrey A. Miller has a good post on seasonality in data and on house prices in particular. On the la...
Stock market - medium term outlook April 20 20 Apr 2009 | 04:47 pm
On March 19 on my last stock trading update I said. "Basically I am waiting for a blow off top to put more shorts on. I will sell my shorts if there are real signs of a sustainable turnaround or if t...
Stock trading March 19 2009 18 Mar 2009 | 02:37 pm
In my March 7 update I concluded. "So large falls in the short term probably depend on the market coming to believe that: a. Commercial real estate is some sort of repeat of residential real estate (...
US housing starts - unexpected jump 18 Mar 2009 | 09:19 am
The blue line is all housing starts. The figures graphed above show a jump in US housing starts and this jump is due almost entirely in a jump in multi-family housing starts (apartments, condos etc)....
What chance a US depression - update 18 Mar 2009 | 08:49 am
A couple of weeeks ago I did some back of the envelop calculations on what the likelihood of a depression (as defined by a > 10% drop in real GDP) is in the US. I concluded: "Based on all that I'd gu...
Stock trading update - March 7 7 Mar 2009 | 12:35 pm
In late Feb I summarised my strategy as: "1. Short SP500 2. Continue to short term trade Australian market with small positions. 3. Watch gold and treasuries markets especially around gold at US$1000...
What odds a depression in the US? 5 Mar 2009 | 04:44 pm
Economist Robert Barro looked at international data on stock market crashes of greater than 25% to see whether they were associated with depressions. He defined a depression as a fall in real GDP of g...
