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The paradox of forward guidance 7 Aug 2013 | 11:15 pm
By saying that interest rates won’t rise until unemployment goes below 7%, Mark Carney hopes to reassure us that rates will stay low for a long time. And, so reassured, the theory is that we’ll borrow...
The rise of UKIP 16 May 2013 | 12:21 pm
The recent rise in UKIP support is bigger and longer-lasting than anything in the party’s history. Here’s a long-term view: (I’ve used ICM and Ipsos MORIbecause they both did well at predicting the 2...
Evidence-basted policy 19 Apr 2013 | 12:50 pm
A prominent economic study, supposedly showing that growth slows down once national debt gets above a certain level, has turned out to be based on a few simple errors. Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff’...
UK and international welfare spending 8 Apr 2013 | 12:57 am
Using OECD data from Declan Gaffney (a great blog post – do read it), I’ve made the two charts below. They look at the amount of money different countries’ governments spend on benefits, excluding pen...
Osborne unveils Plan D 20 Mar 2013 | 06:53 pm
Normal 0 false false false EN-GB JA X-NONE Plus c’est la même chose, plus ça change… The more George Osborne insists on sticking to his policy, the worse the results become. He’s like a driv...
The press regulation deal is both more and less than it seems 19 Mar 2013 | 03:34 am
I wonder whether our political leaders know what they are doing. Their agreement includes a draft Royal Charter establishing the new press regulation system. The Charter states that, once passed, it ...
Cameron opposes faster cuts. But why? 8 Mar 2013 | 06:43 pm
Normal 0 false false false EN-GB JA X-NONE The hole in David Cameron’s economy speech is telling. Here it is: Some say cut more and borrow less, others cut less and borrow more. Go faster. Go...
The inevitability of bad predictions 7 Mar 2013 | 12:32 am
Yesterday the Guardian published a piece of psephology by John Ross. He gets one thing right but almost everything else wrong. I’ll start positive. The thing that Ross gets right is his main point: C...
Pursued By A Bear Market 30 Jan 2013 | 02:26 pm
A tale of fiscal policy and self-justification The Royal Palace. The KING holds court with CAMERON, OSBORNE and CLEGG, Lords of the Treasury, and MILIBAND and BALLS, courtiers. King: Lords Cameron ...
A bad recession and a terrible recovery 26 Jan 2013 | 05:21 pm
The UK recession of 2008-09 was a bit deeper than the 1980s recession but shallower than the 1930s one – and briefer than either. It was much deeper than the 1970s or 1990s ones: by historical standar...
