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Why Standard Fantasy Football Rots and How To Fix It 24 Aug 2013 | 02:44 pm
My mother-in-law plays a dice game called Farkel. It's a game of simple math, but mostly a game of chance—more War than chess, more cleromancy than game theory. If I were stuck with her in a windowles...
Bombast Revisited; A Partial List of My Cognitive Biases 17 Aug 2013 | 08:41 am
Stochastic Football Bombast Revisited It's said a joke explained is a joke ruined. So how about satire? I wrote a loudmouth, accusatory post. It was fun. My intention: to appropriate the tool...
Here's a Thought 16 Aug 2013 | 12:36 am
If it's ok for coaches to use the preseason to experiment with Peyton Manning in the pistol and risk Jay Cutler in the read-option, then it's ok to give your punt team a game off. Put away the 21 pers...
Call for Writers 2013 13 Aug 2013 | 09:00 pm
It's time to report for training camp. This season Advanced NFL Stats is planning to add a small number of additional contributors. I’m looking for smart, articulate thinkers to bring a fresh perspec...
The Pay-Performance Linear Model 13 Aug 2013 | 05:10 am
A couple months ago I posed an apparent paradox. Aaron Rodgers' new $21M/yr contract was either a solid bargain or a disastrous ripoff depending on how we analyze the data. By only flipping the x and ...
A HOF Game Preview Without Irony 3 Aug 2013 | 06:19 am
Stochastic Football Plans and Gambles Among Former Etruscan Pirates By team efficiency Miami finished on the low-end of average in both offense and defense. Any other year, rookie quarterback Rya...
Optimizing a Swim Meet: Traveling Salesmen and Asexual Mutants 30 Jul 2013 | 04:00 pm
You wouldn't think there is much to swimming analytics. Compared to sports like baseball or football, swimming is extremely deterministic. Swimmers tend to have a certain speed in each stroke, and the...
Do Those Who Deny Advanced Statistics Even Watch the Game? 27 Jul 2013 | 06:34 am
Stochastic Football We understand your hostility. Maybe we're dangerous. Would it comfort you if I guaranteed that we are dangerous? And maybe we're dangerous to you. Do you prize your memory, your e...
Joint Statistical Meetings 23 Jul 2013 | 04:56 am
I've been invited to speak at the Joint Statistical Meetings this year, an annual event hosted primarily by the American Statistical Association. It will take place August 3-8 in Montreal. The theme o...
Exploring the Causes of a Sack Pt. 1 13 May 2013 | 04:00 pm
A guest post by David Giller. Born and raised in Swampscott, MA, David attended Vanderbilt University where he was the starting longsnapper for the Commodores. He graduated summa cum laude with a degr...
